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Vendors Survival: Will Facebook Survive Until 2023?

I  wrote many posts about Vendors Survival. In most cases it is more interesting to write about leading vendors and not about Vendors that for surely will not Survive. 
So I wrote about: Apple, Google, Microsoft, HP, EMC, Software AG, Nokia etc. 

All these companies are vulnerable, so their is probability that they will not survive in 2023 (Nokia will not Survive). 

I think that the probability is low (except Nokia). However, it is higher then zero and the probability that one company will survive, could differ from the probability that another company will survive.

I thought of writing about Facebook as well. I did not do it till now due to lack of knowledge about the company and lack of information about the Company's Culture.

Today I read an article by Vivek Badhwa. Its title is: Facebook is Doomed.
Badhwa was asked to write an article comparing Google and Facebook.  
His conclusion is that Facebook is doomed unless it will acquire another company that will transform its Business.

Badhwa admires Google, so take care before accepting his conclusions about it.
As far as Facebook is concerned, I agree with two points he made about Facebook (I rephrased them):

1.Facebook entire Business depends on one Business Line: Electronic Social Network.

2. Lack of Inventions. 

I doubt if his comparison of Microsoft's users feelings and Facebook's user feelings  "Facebook users dislike Facebook for  the same reasons", could be a reason for the disappearance of Facebook.

I do think that a lack of appropriate Revenues Model could be a threat.  

On the one hand Facebook is very popular and its usage is by a new language shortened and simple: Like Share etc. 

On the other hand there are many Use Cases such as: sharing personal experience, sharing photos, sharing interesting articles, Business usage for advertisement, Birthday greetings, Events, Games.

The problem is that there is too much of all of them.
You can not seperate different types of information by structured easy to use tool.

When thinking of the future of Facebook you should remeber two names:

Second Life and Virtual Worlds
The popularity and the buzzword ended suddenly due to lack of Business need. 

Myspace
Myspace, the leading Social Networking Service from 2003 to 2005, refused to buy facebook for 75 million USSds and gradually declined. 

Their fate could be Facebook's fate in 10 years, if nothing new will be invented by Facebook.




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More Stories By Avi Rosenthal

Ari has over 30 years of experience in IT across a wide variety of technology platforms, including application development, technology selection, application and infrastructure strategies, system design, middleware and transaction management technologies and security.

Positions held include CTO for one of the largest software houses in Israel as well as the CTO position for one of the largest ministries of the Israeli government.

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