Welcome!

Microsoft Cloud Authors: Kevin Benedict, Pat Romanski, Liz McMillan, Lori MacVittie, Elizabeth White

News Feed Item

Wilmington Trust Releases 2013-2019 Capital Markets Forecast

Report identifies 'dollars, debts, and demographics' as key economic forces

WILMINGTON, Del., Jan. 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Wilmington Trust released its annual seven-year Capital Markets Forecast, projecting continued recovery in the U.S. with economic growth at 1.5-2 percent in 2013, and annualized inflation averaging 2 percent through 2019. The report's theme, "dollars, debts, and demographics," examines how central bank stimulus, global debt, and aging populations will reshape the global economy and financial markets.

The forecast, crafted by the Investment Strategy Team at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors (WTIA), predicts modest returns on stocks over the seven-year span of the outlook. The team is more optimistic about emerging stock markets, value-oriented large-cap stocks in developed international markets, and non-core bonds, such as sovereign debt of emerging economies and speculative-grade corporate bonds.

"Investing is a long-term proposition," said Rex Macey, WTIA's chief investment officer. "While a myriad of competing economic and political forces will perpetuate a tepid recovery over the next few years, there are opportunities for the diligent investor."

DOLLARS, DEBTS, AND DEMOGRAPHICS
The Capital Markets Forecast includes concerns about the ability of world leaders to drain excess liquidity from the global financial system. While only a 2-percent annualized inflation rate is predicted for the U.S. over the seven-year outlook, the "tidal wave of stimulus" issued by central banks continues to boost financial asset valuations, leading to below-average expected returns.

Just as the world is awash in dollars, it is also steeped in debt. The total debt of the United States, including households, for-profit and not-for-profit entities, and all levels of governments, hit $53.1 trillion at the end of the third quarter of 2012, an amount equal to 3.9 years' worth of all goods and services produced domestically. In 1982, national debt amounted to just 49 weeks' worth of U.S. economic output.

The Investment Strategy Team also cites concern over the "graying" of key populations of the global economy. As U.S. Baby Boomers enter retirement and transition from accumulators of savings to consumers of savings. This demographic shift will likely generate headwinds for the markets. In many emerging markets the demographics are more favorable supporting investments in those markets.  On the bright side in the U.S., the Echo Boomers will be helping to support the housing market in a few years.

SIX U.S. ECONOMIC SCENARIOS
The forecast also examines six potential scenarios and their potential effect on economic growth:

  • Slow growth with normalization
  • Slow growth with persistent economic repression
  • Global policy success
  • Prolonged European / Chinese under-performance
  • U.S. policy failure
  • De-globalization

"In spite of continuing threats to the economy, many economic resources remain in surplus in the U.S. including manufacturing, housing, and labor," said Macey. "Additionally, we see a light at the end of the tunnel. By the end of our forecast horizon in 2019, the U.S. will be ten years removed from the end of the Great Recession, and economic growth and the financial markets should have normalized by that time."

For more detailed analysis and projections, including forecasts and biases for asset classes, Wilmington Trust's 2013-2019 Capital Markets Forecast commentary is available online at www.wilmingtontrust.com/repositories/wtc_sitecontent/PDF/Capital_Markets_Forecast_2013_2019_commentary.pdf.

ABOUT WILMINGTON TRUST INVESTMENT ADVISORS
Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors provides clients with access to quality investment advisory and asset management expertise including equity, fixed income, and alternative strategies. WTIA had over $19.7 billion of assets under management as of Sept. 30, 2012, and it also oversees the investment processes of Wilmington Trust and M&T Bank, which had $40.8 billion of assets under management as of Sept. 30, 2012.

ABOUT THE INVESTMENT STRATEGY TEAM
WTIA's Investment Strategy Team undertakes a multi-year forecast of financial market performance annually. The IST analyzes valuations and global economic scenarios to develop its forecast for longer-term market performance, as well as shorter-term trends in securities prices. The IST aims to deliver higher-than-benchmark total returns for investors based on varying appetites for risk. The forecast underscores the importance of diversification among a variety of asset classes.

ABOUT WILMINGTON TRUST
Wilmington Trust's Wealth Advisory offers a comprehensive array of personal trust, financial planning, fiduciary, asset management, and family office services that help high-net-worth individuals and families grow, preserve, and transfer wealth. Wealth Advisory maintains offices throughout the United States and focuses on serving families with whom it can build long-term relationships, many of which span multiple generations.

Wilmington Trust's Institutional Client Services (ICS) offers institutional trustee, agency, asset management, retirement plan, and administrative services for clients worldwide who use capital markets financing structures, as well as those who seek to establish or maintain nexus, or legal residency for special purpose entities. ICS is distinguished from many competitors by its status as a core business of Wilmington Trust, as well as the experience and expertise of its global staff, and its multi-jurisdictional presence.

Wilmington Trust has offices throughout the United States and internationally in London, Luxembourg, Frankfurt, Dublin, Amsterdam, Cayman Islands, and Channel Islands. Wilmington Trust is an M&T company. For more information, visit www.WilmingtonTrust.com.

Media Contact: Kent Wissinger, Communication Manager (302)651-8758

SOURCE Wilmington Trust

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

IoT & Smart Cities Stories
When talking IoT we often focus on the devices, the sensors, the hardware itself. The new smart appliances, the new smart or self-driving cars (which are amalgamations of many ‘things'). When we are looking at the world of IoT, we should take a step back, look at the big picture. What value are these devices providing. IoT is not about the devices, its about the data consumed and generated. The devices are tools, mechanisms, conduits. This paper discusses the considerations when dealing with the...
Charles Araujo is an industry analyst, internationally recognized authority on the Digital Enterprise and author of The Quantum Age of IT: Why Everything You Know About IT is About to Change. As Principal Analyst with Intellyx, he writes, speaks and advises organizations on how to navigate through this time of disruption. He is also the founder of The Institute for Digital Transformation and a sought after keynote speaker. He has been a regular contributor to both InformationWeek and CIO Insight...
Digital Transformation is much more than a buzzword. The radical shift to digital mechanisms for almost every process is evident across all industries and verticals. This is often especially true in financial services, where the legacy environment is many times unable to keep up with the rapidly shifting demands of the consumer. The constant pressure to provide complete, omnichannel delivery of customer-facing solutions to meet both regulatory and customer demands is putting enormous pressure on...
Machine learning has taken residence at our cities' cores and now we can finally have "smart cities." Cities are a collection of buildings made to provide the structure and safety necessary for people to function, create and survive. Buildings are a pool of ever-changing performance data from large automated systems such as heating and cooling to the people that live and work within them. Through machine learning, buildings can optimize performance, reduce costs, and improve occupant comfort by ...
SYS-CON Events announced today that IoT Global Network has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's @ThingsExpo, which will take place on June 6–8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. The IoT Global Network is a platform where you can connect with industry experts and network across the IoT community to build the successful IoT business of the future.
CloudEXPO New York 2018, colocated with DXWorldEXPO New York 2018 will be held November 11-13, 2018, in New York City and will bring together Cloud Computing, FinTech and Blockchain, Digital Transformation, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, AI, Machine Learning and WebRTC to one location.
Andrew Keys is Co-Founder of ConsenSys Enterprise. He comes to ConsenSys Enterprise with capital markets, technology and entrepreneurial experience. Previously, he worked for UBS investment bank in equities analysis. Later, he was responsible for the creation and distribution of life settlement products to hedge funds and investment banks. After, he co-founded a revenue cycle management company where he learned about Bitcoin and eventually Ethereal. Andrew's role at ConsenSys Enterprise is a mul...
The best way to leverage your Cloud Expo presence as a sponsor and exhibitor is to plan your news announcements around our events. The press covering Cloud Expo and @ThingsExpo will have access to these releases and will amplify your news announcements. More than two dozen Cloud companies either set deals at our shows or have announced their mergers and acquisitions at Cloud Expo. Product announcements during our show provide your company with the most reach through our targeted audiences.
DXWorldEXPO | CloudEXPO are the world's most influential, independent events where Cloud Computing was coined and where technology buyers and vendors meet to experience and discuss the big picture of Digital Transformation and all of the strategies, tactics, and tools they need to realize their goals. Sponsors of DXWorldEXPO | CloudEXPO benefit from unmatched branding, profile building and lead generation opportunities.
Disruption, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, Leadership and Management hear these words all day every day... lofty goals but how do we make it real? Add to that, that simply put, people don't like change. But what if we could implement and utilize these enterprise tools in a fast and "Non-Disruptive" way, enabling us to glean insights about our business, identify and reduce exposure, risk and liability, and secure business continuity?