Welcome!

Microsoft Cloud Authors: Janakiram MSV, Yeshim Deniz, David H Deans, Andreas Grabner, Stackify Blog

Related Topics: Microservices Expo, Microsoft Cloud, Open Source Cloud, Containers Expo Blog, @CloudExpo, @DXWorldExpo, SDN Journal

Microservices Expo: Article

ZapThink’s 2012 Retrospective and Predictions for 2013

The rules of Cyberspace suddenly and dramatically rewrite themselves

Welcome to the twelfth – yes, the twelfth! – annual installment of ZapThink’s annual retrospective and predictions for the coming year. Since we started the trend with our 2003 predictions and 2002 retrospective ZapFlash, we have taken a different tack than most IT prognosticators in that we actually grade ourselves on our predictions from the previous year, for better or worse. Last year we scored ourselves 2.5 out of 3, even going so far as to predict Amazon’s 2011 crash. Predictions for 2012? Not so good. But regardless of how well our guesses turned out, the result still makes for a story worth telling.

Our Results from Last Year
We made three predictions for 2012
in last year’s ZapFlash:

Future First steals thunder from the Cloud – We expected a shift in the US government’s attention away from Cloud Computing and the FedRAMP initiative to Federal CIO Steven VanRoekel’s Future First initiative, which combined Cloud, lean approaches, Agile, and open source. We’re awarding ourselves a score of 75% on this one. Yes, FedRAMP has become more time-consuming and bureaucratic as we predicted, and the government is moving forward with notable Agile successes as well as greater open source efforts. But unfortunately, the “Future First” moniker has not caught the excitement of the government or the public the way we had hoped it would.

HTML 5 becomes the glue of the ZapThink 2020 vision – We’ll give ourselves half a point on this one. Yes, according to the W3C, HTML 5 is now feature complete: an important milestone on the road to becoming a fully ratified standard. But that doesn’t mean it’s far enough along for broad adoption, or that it contains all the features everybody wants from it. Mobile phone developers are still more likely to code within the native environments on their respective devices, citing HTML 5 compatibility and performance issues. And then there’s all the work going into HTML 5.1. Yes, maybe HTML 5 will be the glue someday, but the glue is far from dry.

The rise of RESTful BPM – We hedged our bets on this one, pointing out that all 2012 would bring on this topic would be increased buzz. But in all fairness, we missed the target on this one. We couldn’t identify any buzz around Business Process Management (BPM) at all in 2012, RESTful or otherwise. Perhaps our timing was off, but there are no indications that RESTful BPM will be a hot topic in 2013 either.

Predictions for 2013
You’d think after awarding ourselves a dismal 1.25 out of 3, we’d make some safer predictions for 2013. Well, that’s not the ZapThink way. Here, then, are our prognostications for the coming year.

Cloudwashing reaches a level of desperation – Vendors’ all-to-common practice of using the “Cloud” label on their products or services regardless of whether what they’re offering has anything to do with the Cloud, aka Cloudwashing, is nothing new. But we predict that in 2013, Cloudwashing will reach a fevered pitch, as many vendors finally realize that they simply cannot leverage the Cloud cost-effectively in their product strategies. After all, Cloud Computing is inherently threatening to traditional vendors, as it enables customers to avoid purchasing their products altogether. Expect to hear louder, more extreme condemnations of Public Clouds, more detailed and elaborate Cloudwashing obfuscations of product features, and perhaps a few spectacular vendor flameouts.

There is also a serious risk that the Cloudwashers will win this battle. Just as the middleware vendors won the SOA battle, turning an architectural approach into a set of ESB features, “Cloud” vendors may wreak the same havoc with the Cloud. Here’s how you can tell if a vendor is trying to pull the wool over your eyes: cross out the word “Cloud” in their marketing and write in either “Web” or “virtualized data center.” If their marketing ends up saying essentially the same thing as it did when it was Cloudwashed, you know they’re trying to fool you. Be warned!

Next generation SOA begins to coalesce – For years, ZapThink has touted the difference between the practice of SOA and purported implementations of SOA. Our mantra has always been that SOA is protocol and technology independent: it doesn’t require Web Services, or ESBs, or any of the heavyweight IT infrastructure that has given SOA its reputation of complexity and failure. With the rise of Cloud Computing, architects are increasingly realizing that the bits and pieces of SOA best practice – loose coupling, intermediary-based abstraction, and automated governance, to name a few – can and should be applied as appropriate, independent of the existence of any specific, funded SOA effort.

In 2013, we predict that these miscellaneous patterns and practices will gradually coalesce into a kind of “post-SOA” architectural approach. Yes, it will still center on achieving greater levels of business agility in the context of heterogeneous resources, but this next-generation architecture ZapThink calls Agile Architecture goes beyond middleware-centric legacy enablement, leveraging hypermedia-driven, Cloud based approaches for achieving agility in the enterprise. In fact, it’s no mistake that this next generation approach is at the core of our new book, The Agile Architecture Revolution, coming out in the spring.

Cyber-9/11 – Finally, a prediction we sincerely hope does not come to pass. We predict some kind of Cyberattack so remarkable, so damaging, that it forever changes the way the world looks at the ongoing Cyberwar. Just as 9/11 changed our world forever, the attack we predict will have the same kind of psychological impact. You may not believe we’re in the midst of a Cyberwar now, but after the Cyber-9/11, no one will have any remaining doubts.

The ZapThink Take
The common theme across our three predictions is some kind of conflict between two opposing forces. We have the dinosaur software vendors struggling to maintain relevance vs. the new world of the Cloud. There’s old guard SOA, mired in the complexity of middleware and Web Services, vs. lightweight, hypermedia-driven, Cloud-friendly approaches to achieving greater agility via loose coupling. And there’s the world before the Cyber-9/11, where people don’t even realize they’re fighting a Cyberwar, vs. post-Cyber-9/11, where the rules of Cyberspace suddenly and dramatically rewrite themselves.

Fundamentally, this dichotomy is between the old way of doing things: slow, expensive, and inflexible, vs. the new way: agile, lightweight, and Web-centric. This dichotomy plays itself out in enterprises across the world. It’s one aspect of the perennial battle between siloed, bureaucratic organizations that lead to redundant legacy environments and architecture-driven organizations that can innovate even as they grow. The bureaucracies are the incumbents, the innovators are the challengers. Will 2013 be the year the advantage shifts to the innovators? Only time will tell.

Image credit: Mark Skipper

More Stories By Jason Bloomberg

Jason Bloomberg is the leading expert on architecting agility for the enterprise. As president of Intellyx, Mr. Bloomberg brings his years of thought leadership in the areas of Cloud Computing, Enterprise Architecture, and Service-Oriented Architecture to a global clientele of business executives, architects, software vendors, and Cloud service providers looking to achieve technology-enabled business agility across their organizations and for their customers. His latest book, The Agile Architecture Revolution (John Wiley & Sons, 2013), sets the stage for Mr. Bloomberg’s groundbreaking Agile Architecture vision.

Mr. Bloomberg is perhaps best known for his twelve years at ZapThink, where he created and delivered the Licensed ZapThink Architect (LZA) SOA course and associated credential, certifying over 1,700 professionals worldwide. He is one of the original Managing Partners of ZapThink LLC, the leading SOA advisory and analysis firm, which was acquired by Dovel Technologies in 2011. He now runs the successor to the LZA program, the Bloomberg Agile Architecture Course, around the world.

Mr. Bloomberg is a frequent conference speaker and prolific writer. He has published over 500 articles, spoken at over 300 conferences, Webinars, and other events, and has been quoted in the press over 1,400 times as the leading expert on agile approaches to architecture in the enterprise.

Mr. Bloomberg’s previous book, Service Orient or Be Doomed! How Service Orientation Will Change Your Business (John Wiley & Sons, 2006, coauthored with Ron Schmelzer), is recognized as the leading business book on Service Orientation. He also co-authored the books XML and Web Services Unleashed (SAMS Publishing, 2002), and Web Page Scripting Techniques (Hayden Books, 1996).

Prior to ZapThink, Mr. Bloomberg built a diverse background in eBusiness technology management and industry analysis, including serving as a senior analyst in IDC’s eBusiness Advisory group, as well as holding eBusiness management positions at USWeb/CKS (later marchFIRST) and WaveBend Solutions (now Hitachi Consulting).

@ThingsExpo Stories
In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Carl J. Levine, Senior Technical Evangelist for NS1, will objectively discuss how DNS is used to solve Digital Transformation challenges in large SaaS applications, CDNs, AdTech platforms, and other demanding use cases. Carl J. Levine is the Senior Technical Evangelist for NS1. A veteran of the Internet Infrastructure space, he has over a decade of experience with startups, networking protocols and Internet infrastructure, combined with the unique ability to it...
"There's plenty of bandwidth out there but it's never in the right place. So what Cedexis does is uses data to work out the best pathways to get data from the origin to the person who wants to get it," explained Simon Jones, Evangelist and Head of Marketing at Cedexis, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
"Cloud Academy is an enterprise training platform for the cloud, specifically public clouds. We offer guided learning experiences on AWS, Azure, Google Cloud and all the surrounding methodologies and technologies that you need to know and your teams need to know in order to leverage the full benefits of the cloud," explained Alex Brower, VP of Marketing at Cloud Academy, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clar...
Large industrial manufacturing organizations are adopting the agile principles of cloud software companies. The industrial manufacturing development process has not scaled over time. Now that design CAD teams are geographically distributed, centralizing their work is key. With large multi-gigabyte projects, outdated tools have stifled industrial team agility, time-to-market milestones, and impacted P&L stakeholders.
Gemini is Yahoo’s native and search advertising platform. To ensure the quality of a complex distributed system that spans multiple products and components and across various desktop websites and mobile app and web experiences – both Yahoo owned and operated and third-party syndication (supply), with complex interaction with more than a billion users and numerous advertisers globally (demand) – it becomes imperative to automate a set of end-to-end tests 24x7 to detect bugs and regression. In th...
"Akvelon is a software development company and we also provide consultancy services to folks who are looking to scale or accelerate their engineering roadmaps," explained Jeremiah Mothersell, Marketing Manager at Akvelon, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
"MobiDev is a software development company and we do complex, custom software development for everybody from entrepreneurs to large enterprises," explained Alan Winters, U.S. Head of Business Development at MobiDev, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
SYS-CON Events announced today that CrowdReviews.com has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 22nd International Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 5–7, 2018, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. CrowdReviews.com is a transparent online platform for determining which products and services are the best based on the opinion of the crowd. The crowd consists of Internet users that have experienced products and services first-hand and have an interest in letting other potential buye...
"IBM is really all in on blockchain. We take a look at sort of the history of blockchain ledger technologies. It started out with bitcoin, Ethereum, and IBM evaluated these particular blockchain technologies and found they were anonymous and permissionless and that many companies were looking for permissioned blockchain," stated René Bostic, Technical VP of the IBM Cloud Unit in North America, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Conventi...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Telecom Reseller has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 22nd International Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 5-7, 2018, at the Javits Center in New York, NY. Telecom Reseller reports on Unified Communications, UCaaS, BPaaS for enterprise and SMBs. They report extensively on both customer premises based solutions such as IP-PBX as well as cloud based and hosted platforms.
"Space Monkey by Vivent Smart Home is a product that is a distributed cloud-based edge storage network. Vivent Smart Home, our parent company, is a smart home provider that places a lot of hard drives across homes in North America," explained JT Olds, Director of Engineering, and Brandon Crowfeather, Product Manager, at Vivint Smart Home, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Coca-Cola’s Google powered digital signage system lays the groundwork for a more valuable connection between Coke and its customers. Digital signs pair software with high-resolution displays so that a message can be changed instantly based on what the operator wants to communicate or sell. In their Day 3 Keynote at 21st Cloud Expo, Greg Chambers, Global Group Director, Digital Innovation, Coca-Cola, and Vidya Nagarajan, a Senior Product Manager at Google, discussed how from store operations and ...
It is of utmost importance for the future success of WebRTC to ensure that interoperability is operational between web browsers and any WebRTC-compliant client. To be guaranteed as operational and effective, interoperability must be tested extensively by establishing WebRTC data and media connections between different web browsers running on different devices and operating systems. In his session at WebRTC Summit at @ThingsExpo, Dr. Alex Gouaillard, CEO and Founder of CoSMo Software, presented ...
WebRTC is great technology to build your own communication tools. It will be even more exciting experience it with advanced devices, such as a 360 Camera, 360 microphone, and a depth sensor camera. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Masashi Ganeko, a manager at INFOCOM Corporation, introduced two experimental projects from his team and what they learned from them. "Shotoku Tamago" uses the robot audition software HARK to track speakers in 360 video of a remote party. "Virtual Teleport" uses a multip...
A strange thing is happening along the way to the Internet of Things, namely far too many devices to work with and manage. It has become clear that we'll need much higher efficiency user experiences that can allow us to more easily and scalably work with the thousands of devices that will soon be in each of our lives. Enter the conversational interface revolution, combining bots we can literally talk with, gesture to, and even direct with our thoughts, with embedded artificial intelligence, whic...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Evatronix will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Evatronix SA offers comprehensive solutions in the design and implementation of electronic systems, in CAD / CAM deployment, and also is a designer and manufacturer of advanced 3D scanners for professional applications.
Leading companies, from the Global Fortune 500 to the smallest companies, are adopting hybrid cloud as the path to business advantage. Hybrid cloud depends on cloud services and on-premises infrastructure working in unison. Successful implementations require new levels of data mobility, enabled by an automated and seamless flow across on-premises and cloud resources. In his general session at 21st Cloud Expo, Greg Tevis, an IBM Storage Software Technical Strategist and Customer Solution Architec...
To get the most out of their data, successful companies are not focusing on queries and data lakes, they are actively integrating analytics into their operations with a data-first application development approach. Real-time adjustments to improve revenues, reduce costs, or mitigate risk rely on applications that minimize latency on a variety of data sources. In his session at @BigDataExpo, Jack Norris, Senior Vice President, Data and Applications at MapR Technologies, reviewed best practices to ...
An increasing number of companies are creating products that combine data with analytical capabilities. Running interactive queries on Big Data requires complex architectures to store and query data effectively, typically involving data streams, an choosing efficient file format/database and multiple independent systems that are tied together through custom-engineered pipelines. In his session at @BigDataExpo at @ThingsExpo, Tomer Levi, a senior software engineer at Intel’s Advanced Analytics gr...
When talking IoT we often focus on the devices, the sensors, the hardware itself. The new smart appliances, the new smart or self-driving cars (which are amalgamations of many ‘things’). When we are looking at the world of IoT, we should take a step back, look at the big picture. What value are these devices providing? IoT is not about the devices, it’s about the data consumed and generated. The devices are tools, mechanisms, conduits. In his session at Internet of Things at Cloud Expo | DXWor...