|By PR Newswire||
|December 18, 2012 04:01 AM EST||
LONDON, December 18, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --
Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, today releases its annual batch of ten Outrageous Predictions for 2013. This is Saxo Bank's annual exercise in rooting out relatively extreme market and political events for which the probability is perhaps low, if still vastly under-appreciated.
Among these predictions is that Germany will move toward accepting the mutualisation of Euro debt, which combined with other strains could cause the DAX to plunge by about a third from near multi-year highs to 5,000. Another is that gold will fall by around 500 dollars to USD 1,200 per ounce on faster US growth and a stronger US dollar and despite the overhang of Fed's easy monetary policy.
Other events Saxo Bank believes would have a significant impact should they come to pass include Spanish interest rates rising to 10% despite the ECB's OMT mechanism as Greece exits and social tensions rise, and the un-pegging of the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) from the USD and its re-pegging to the Chinese Renminbi as China attempts to take more control of its economic destiny away from the US and its central bank's policies.
Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, comments:
"This year's Outrageous Predictions are once again a selection of mainly negative events, any of which can change the financial landscape and in some cases even the political status quo. Here at the end of 2012, we have extremely low volatility in all asset classes due to the lack of real price discovery from heavy handed manipulation by central banks. In such an environment, almost any move outside of two standard deviations is becoming 'outrageous'.
"These ten predictions are not Saxo Bank's official forecasts for 2013. They could, however, prove far more relevant for investors because of the huge impact if any one of them sees the light of day in the New Year. Before trading or investing, investors must know the worst case scenario - capital preservation is a must and portfolios need to be able to weather a perfect storm, or for that matter any storm."
To see more please go to the Outrageous Predictions website: http://www.tradingfloor.com/topics/saxo-outrageous-predictions
To follow Outrageous Predictions or make your own, join the conversation on Twitter by using the hashtag #SaxoOP and don't forget to follow Trading Floor and Saxo Bank on @tradingfloorcom and @SaxoBank
Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions 2013
1. DAX plunges 33 percent to 5000
China's economic slowdown continues, putting a halt to Germany's industrial expansion. This causes large price declines in industrial stocks and low consumer confidence. Approval ratings for Angela Merkel plunge ahead of the German election, and in a weak economy combined with political uncertainty as Germany moves closer to signing up for further EU debt mutualisation, the DAX stock market index declines to 5,000, down 33 percent for the year.
2. Nationalisation of major Japanese electronics companies
Japan's electronics industry, once the glory of the country, enters a terminal phase after being outmatched by South Korea. With combined annual losses of USD 30 billion for Sharp, Panasonic and Sony alone, creditworthiness deteriorates greatly and the Japanese government nationalises key industry players, similar to the US government's bailout of its automobile industry.
3. Soybeans to rise by 50 percent
Bad weather during 2012, which wreaked havoc on global crop production and saw a nine-year low in US soybean ending stocks, leaves the price of new crop soybeans exposed to any new weather disruptions, either in the US, South America or in China. Increased demand for biofuel will also play its part in exposing the price to spikes, and speculators will be ready to re-enter the market, pushing the price higher by as much as 50 percent. Food security becomes a buzz phrase
4. Gold corrects to USD 1,200 per ounce
The strength of the US economic recovery in 2013 surprises the market and especially financial investors in gold. This and a lack of pick-up in physical demand for gold from China and India, both struggling with weak growth and rising unemployment, trigger a major round of gold liquidation. Gold slumps to USD 1,200 before central banks eventually step in to take advantage of lower prices.
5. WTI crude hits USD 50
US energy production continues to rise, primarily through advanced production techniques such as in the shale oil sector. US production of crude oil rises strongly, and with domestic inventory levels already at a 30-year high and export options limited, WTI benchmark crude oil prices come under renewed selling pressure and slump towards USD 50 per barrel.
6. USDJPY heads to 60.00
The Liberal Democratic Party comes back into power in Japan, with its supposedly JPY-punishing agenda. Only half-measures are introduced however, and at the same time the market has become over-positioned for JPY weakness and Japanese investors repatriate a portion of their trillions of USD invested abroad as risk appetite retrenches. The yen vaults to the fore as the world's strongest currency, with USDJPY heading as low as 60.00 - ironically paving the way for the LDP government and the BoJ to reach for those more radical yen-weakening measures they promised in the first place.
7. EURCHF breaks peg, touches 0.9500
European Union tail risks are re-aggravated - perhaps by the Italian election - or over the nature of Greece's exit from the European Monetary Union and the worry that Spain and Portugal will follow suit. This sends capital flows surging into Switzerland once again and the Swiss National Bank and Swiss Government decide it is better to abandon the Swiss franc's peg to the euro for a time rather than push reserves past 100% of Switzerland's GDP. As a consequence EURCHF touches a new all-time low below parity before Switzerland is forced to introduce capital controls to stem its strength.
8. Hong Kong unpegs HKD from USD - re-pegs to RMB
Hong Kong moves to unpeg its dollar from the US dollar, and repeg it to the Chinese renminbi. Other Asian countries show signs of wanting to follow suit. RMB volatility increases as China loosens its grip on the currency's movements, and Hong Kong quickly grows to become a major world currency trading centre and the most important centre for trading the RMB.
9. Spain takes one step closer to default as interest rates rise to 10 percent
With social tensions in Spain already high, the public sector simply cannot cut its public outlays further. In 2013, Spanish sovereign debt is downgraded to junk and the social strain pushes Spain over the edge, seeing Spain reject the extend-and-pretend policies of EU officialdom. Yields rapidly increase after the downgrade and as an inevitable default is priced in.
10. 30-year US yield doubles in 2013
The Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy forces investors to leave fixed income. With no or even negative return, the substitution of bonds with stocks is appealing. The bond market is far larger than the equity market and a 10 per cent reduction of funds allocated to bonds and reallocated to stocks would amplify equity fund inflows by around 30 per cent. This could lead to higher US rates and also be the beginning of decade-long outperformance by stocks over bonds.
About Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank is a leading online trading and investment specialist. A fully licensed and regulated European bank, Saxo Bank enables private investors and institutional clients to trade FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives via three specialised and fully integrated trading platforms; the browser-based SaxoWebTrader, the downloadable SaxoTrader and the SaxoMobileTrader application available in over 20 languages. Saxo Bank also offers professional portfolio and fund management through Saxo Asset Management who accommodates high-net worth private clients and institutional investors and provides banking services and advice to retail clients through Saxo Privatbank. The Saxo Bank Group is headquartered in Copenhagen with offices throughout Europe, Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Australia.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Commvault, a global leader in enterprise data protection and information management, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7–9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY, and the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Commvault is a leading provider of data protection and information management...
Feb. 7, 2016 03:30 PM EST Reads: 372
The cloud promises new levels of agility and cost-savings for Big Data, data warehousing and analytics. But it’s challenging to understand all the options – from IaaS and PaaS to newer services like HaaS (Hadoop as a Service) and BDaaS (Big Data as a Service). In her session at @BigDataExpo at @ThingsExpo, Hannah Smalltree, a director at Cazena, will provide an educational overview of emerging “as-a-service” options for Big Data in the cloud. This is critical background for IT and data profes...
Feb. 7, 2016 02:45 PM EST Reads: 142
SYS-CON Events announced today that VAI, a leading ERP software provider, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. VAI (Vormittag Associates, Inc.) is a leading independent mid-market ERP software developer renowned for its flexible solutions and ability to automate critical business functions for the distribution, manufacturing, specialty retail and service sectors. An IBM Premier Business Part...
Feb. 7, 2016 02:00 PM EST Reads: 559
SYS-CON Events announced today that Alert Logic, Inc., the leading provider of Security-as-a-Service solutions for the cloud, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Alert Logic, Inc., provides Security-as-a-Service for on-premises, cloud, and hybrid infrastructures, delivering deep security insight and continuous protection for customers at a lower cost than traditional security solutions. Ful...
Feb. 7, 2016 01:45 PM EST Reads: 364
Fortunately, meaningful and tangible business cases for IoT are plentiful in a broad array of industries and vertical markets. These range from simple warranty cost reduction for capital intensive assets, to minimizing downtime for vital business tools, to creating feedback loops improving product design, to improving and enhancing enterprise customer experiences. All of these business cases, which will be briefly explored in this session, hinge on cost effectively extracting relevant data from ...
Feb. 7, 2016 01:30 PM EST
With the Apple Watch making its way onto wrists all over the world, it’s only a matter of time before it becomes a staple in the workplace. In fact, Forrester reported that 68 percent of technology and business decision-makers characterize wearables as a top priority for 2015. Recognizing their business value early on, FinancialForce.com was the first to bring ERP to wearables, helping streamline communication across front and back office functions. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Kevin Roberts...
Feb. 7, 2016 12:00 PM EST Reads: 346
SYS-CON Events announced today that Interoute, owner-operator of one of Europe's largest networks and a global cloud services platform, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2015 at the Javits Center in New York, New York. Interoute is the owner-operator of one of Europe's largest networks and a global cloud services platform which encompasses 12 data centers, 14 virtual data centers and 31 colocation centers, with connections to 195 ad...
Feb. 7, 2016 11:30 AM EST Reads: 348
With an estimated 50 billion devices connected to the Internet by 2020, several industries will begin to expand their capabilities for retaining end point data at the edge to better utilize the range of data types and sheer volume of M2M data generated by the Internet of Things. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Don DeLoach, CEO and President of Infobright, will discuss the infrastructures businesses will need to implement to handle this explosion of data by providing specific use cases for filte...
Feb. 7, 2016 10:15 AM EST Reads: 117
As enterprises work to take advantage of Big Data technologies, they frequently become distracted by product-level decisions. In most new Big Data builds this approach is completely counter-productive: it presupposes tools that may not be a fit for development teams, forces IT to take on the burden of evaluating and maintaining unfamiliar technology, and represents a major up-front expense. In his session at @BigDataExpo at @ThingsExpo, Andrew Warfield, CTO and Co-Founder of Coho Data, will dis...
Feb. 7, 2016 07:00 AM EST Reads: 124
SYS-CON Events announced today that Fusion, a leading provider of cloud services, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Fusion, a leading provider of integrated cloud solutions to small, medium and large businesses, is the industry's single source for the cloud. Fusion's advanced, proprietary cloud service platform enables the integration of leading edge solutions in the cloud, including clou...
Feb. 6, 2016 03:30 PM EST Reads: 721
Most people haven’t heard the word, “gamification,” even though they probably, and perhaps unwittingly, participate in it every day. Gamification is “the process of adding games or game-like elements to something (as a task) so as to encourage participation.” Further, gamification is about bringing game mechanics – rules, constructs, processes, and methods – into the real world in an effort to engage people. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Robert Endo, owner and engagement manager of Intrepid D...
Feb. 5, 2016 09:00 PM EST Reads: 787
Eighty percent of a data scientist’s time is spent gathering and cleaning up data, and 80% of all data is unstructured and almost never analyzed. Cognitive computing, in combination with Big Data, is changing the equation by creating data reservoirs and using natural language processing to enable analysis of unstructured data sources. This is impacting every aspect of the analytics profession from how data is mined (and by whom) to how it is delivered. This is not some futuristic vision: it's ha...
Feb. 2, 2016 02:00 PM EST Reads: 413
WebRTC has had a real tough three or four years, and so have those working with it. Only a few short years ago, the development world were excited about WebRTC and proclaiming how awesome it was. You might have played with the technology a couple of years ago, only to find the extra infrastructure requirements were painful to implement and poorly documented. This probably left a bitter taste in your mouth, especially when things went wrong.
Feb. 2, 2016 04:30 AM EST Reads: 852
Learn how IoT, cloud, social networks and last but not least, humans, can be integrated into a seamless integration of cooperative organisms both cybernetic and biological. This has been enabled by recent advances in IoT device capabilities, messaging frameworks, presence and collaboration services, where devices can share information and make independent and human assisted decisions based upon social status from other entities. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Michael Heydt, founder of Seamless...
Feb. 1, 2016 05:00 AM EST Reads: 941
The IoT's basic concept of collecting data from as many sources possible to drive better decision making, create process innovation and realize additional revenue has been in use at large enterprises with deep pockets for decades. So what has changed? In his session at @ThingsExpo, Prasanna Sivaramakrishnan, Solutions Architect at Red Hat, discussed the impact commodity hardware, ubiquitous connectivity, and innovations in open source software are having on the connected universe of people, thi...
Jan. 31, 2016 09:00 PM EST Reads: 727
WebRTC: together these advances have created a perfect storm of technologies that are disrupting and transforming classic communications models and ecosystems. In his session at WebRTC Summit, Cary Bran, VP of Innovation and New Ventures at Plantronics and PLT Labs, provided an overview of this technological shift, including associated business and consumer communications impacts, and opportunities it may enable, complement or entirely transform.
Jan. 31, 2016 07:15 PM EST Reads: 1,147
There are so many tools and techniques for data analytics that even for a data scientist the choices, possible systems, and even the types of data can be daunting. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Chris Harrold, Global CTO for Big Data Solutions for EMC Corporation, showed how to perform a simple, but meaningful analysis of social sentiment data using freely available tools that take only minutes to download and install. Participants received the download information, scripts, and complete end-t...
Jan. 31, 2016 10:00 AM EST Reads: 1,220
For manufacturers, the Internet of Things (IoT) represents a jumping-off point for innovation, jobs, and revenue creation. But to adequately seize the opportunity, manufacturers must design devices that are interconnected, can continually sense their environment and process huge amounts of data. As a first step, manufacturers must embrace a new product development ecosystem in order to support these products.
Jan. 31, 2016 10:00 AM EST Reads: 813
Manufacturing connected IoT versions of traditional products requires more than multiple deep technology skills. It also requires a shift in mindset, to realize that connected, sensor-enabled “things” act more like services than what we usually think of as products. In his session at @ThingsExpo, David Friedman, CEO and co-founder of Ayla Networks, discussed how when sensors start generating detailed real-world data about products and how they’re being used, smart manufacturers can use the dat...
Jan. 30, 2016 07:45 PM EST Reads: 792
When it comes to IoT in the enterprise, namely the commercial building and hospitality markets, a benefit not getting the attention it deserves is energy efficiency, and IoT’s direct impact on a cleaner, greener environment when installed in smart buildings. Until now clean technology was offered piecemeal and led with point solutions that require significant systems integration to orchestrate and deploy. There didn't exist a 'top down' approach that can manage and monitor the way a Smart Buildi...
Jan. 30, 2016 03:45 PM EST Reads: 1,271